Depression's Podcast
L.A. WILL BURN IN FALL 2007 Originally Posted March,2007 Special Thanks to Mike Davis,Dept. of Forestry and U.C.L.A. Library Archives First of all, don't be scared off or bored by my prologue, the following statements are "FACTS" and they are some very important "Facts" that L.A. Residents should be aware of to understand the dynamics of So. Cal. Climatology. Los Angeles is not the utopian paradise of Serenity and annual days at the beach that has been advertised for almost a century. Southern California is nicknamed by many Scientists and Climatologists as "An Amusement park for Disasters". L.A. has 4 seasons that are very unique compared to the rest of the Country, those 4 seasons are not Fall, Winter, Spring & Summer. The 4 L.A. Seasons consist of Riot, Fire, Flood & Earthquake (sounds funny, but it's true). The amount of misconceptions that exist regarding L.A. Climate and its environment are amazingly deceiving and dangerous, so vastly different and Complicated, I could never explain them in a simple Blog. Yet I assure you they exist, they amazed me once I discovered the deeper issues surrounding L.A. & would truly frighten you if you understood how realistic they are. Los Angeles has some VERY unique characteristics that sociologists and Scientists have studied and recognized as disturbing truths. These realities are ignored by many, from The Weather Channel, Local Media but more importantly. The Population of So. Cal. . Los Angeles is the ONLY city in the United States that contains an Extremely Dangerous yet unique trait. No other City in the country is so populated and blends such an eclectic group of Economic classes, Cultural differences and confinement in an area simultaneously prone to Major catastrophe & natural disasters. There have been studies on this subject and only Miami, Florida comes second in the risk of natural disasters combining with issues such as class warfare, urban diversity & lack of preparedness to create a dangerous mix that will someday climax into total chaos and mayhem. Los Angeles ranks first in a category that has just recently been judged as so highly dangerous and "Volatile". This new discovery has been referred to as "Urban/Wildlife interface". Essentially Los Angeles residents sit right next to and often "Into" the Mountains...Ocean shores...Earthquake faults ECT. That geologically makes L.A such a visually beautiful landscape that draws people from around the Country & world. Los Angeles, Much like New York City has an eclectic array of Culture, living standards and diversity that make it a great city. These very qualities are also the ingredients for disaster. L.A. at some point will go through a massive transformation that involves natural events combined with social and political factors that ironically join together in the supposed tranquility yet quiet instability of Los Angeles, California, U.S.A. Without straying too far from the main topic and losing your interest, let me give you some facts that might shed light into why L.A. is a silent Bomb, and how this factors into my opinions on L.A. being misinterpreted as "Paradise". 2007 has so far has recorded the lowest amount of rainfall ever recorded in L.A. (2.47"). This is an extremely misleading statement. The Word "Average" does not exist when speaking of L.A. Climate. According to the National Weather Service, the Average amount of Rainfall for Los Angeles is around 14.00" in a year... few realize that this average is based on an Extreme and radical cycle of Weather ...you see...In the Weather world, yearly rain averages are mathematically figured. Meaning for example that one year L.A. may receive No rain at all, not a drop, causing fears of drought and fire. But! If the next year we are deluged with 30" of Rain causing flooded streets, and homes sliding down hillsides, The Weather service concludes that our yearly Average rainfall is 15". This is "Exactly" how L.A. County creates an "Average" annual rainfall amount. Extreme fluctuations in Rainfall, Temperture, are what create our Average. "No" other state experiences such inconsistent Weather events yet uses this method to create what we are told is average a.k.a Normal? In other words "Our Normal Weather is to never have Normal Weather. Imagine Driving at a speed of 100 M.P.H. on the freeway for 30 minutes and then stopping completely, it would make little sense to claim your "Normal" driving speed is 50 miles per hour wouldn't it. Yet in almost every Weather category, that is how L.A.'s "Averages are obtained. Did you know, that In 1939 A Hurricane made Landfall near San Pedro, killing numerous people and creating severe flood conditions throughout L.A. but you have been told that Hurricanes cannot hit California?.....Even the Santa Ana winds reach 100+ m.p.h regularly...much Stronger than a Hurricane? Yet.... If you watch the Weather channel or read outside papers after serious weather events like that. You will see how they are downplayed, this is no accident. Every time L.A. experiences unusual Weather the media will "always" play a video of someone from out of town who claims "This is nothing compared to home". They may be right! but what is important is that these events resemble nothing that we are told is normal L.A. weather. This is referred to as the "East Coast Bias". East Coast Bias is the perpetuation that Severe and catastrophic Weather only occurs in the mid-west, Southeast and upper east coast. Even Snow (although Rare) used to fall in Los Angeles at least every ten years, and I don't mean 1 inch of sleet or ice. I have seen Pictures from the late 1940's showing Topanga Canyon Blvd and Sherman Way under a foot of snow, although "Unusual" the last snow event occurred in February 1989 and only dropped about an inch in suburbia, but it is not as uncommon as most Los Angelinos think. So Next time it Snows in Sunny Cal they will tell you it is a "Freak" occurrence, although it has happened numerous times before and will again.. Tornadoes are very common for us in Los Angeles, although this statement draws "Much" critiscism...Los Angeles actually experiences more "Tornadic Events" per mile than Okalahoma city (the center of infamous "Tornado alley") The Criticism is that we only get weak F1 or F2 tornadoes and Oklahoma gets major F4's tornadoes. True, but irrelevant to my point. Most astounding yet filled with explanation is that it has been clearly proven through city documents and testimony that back in the Early to mid 1900's, L.A. politicians and land owners wanted Easterners to farm out in L.A. .To escape snow and tornadoes, thus it demanded that local papers and meteorologist reports classify L.A. tornadoes as"Freak Winds" or "Downbursts" as to not scare away potential new residents. Pictures and recorded proof show that L.A. experiences mild tornadoes on a regular basis. The Claim that L.A. has no such events or that they are even rare is a Lie that still exists today, In November 1982 Tornadoes Ravaged areas of Van Nuys, Vernon etc.Tornaedoes actually have caused great damage to the L.A. infrastructure in the past 100 years. One of the most dramatic storms in L.A. history hit on March 1, 1983 when a powerful F2 Tornado nearly flattened sections of downtown L.A. just west of the Staples Center, killing 1 person, Causing severe damage to homes ect. And even ripping the roof of the Convention Center. But you don't hear about that do you.I feel the need to mention these historical facts and educate you on these events (and there are many more I assure you) simply to point out that the statement"L.A. has no Weather" is one of the greatest myths that exists in the weather community and yet is still perpetuated to this day. Southern California climate is "The Weather of Extremes". From Earthquake Faults that we never knew existed (Northridge) or Brush Fires that we always knew would occur (Firestorms of 2002) yet could not be controlled. L.A. is in the Sniper sights of Mother Nature and Archeologists, Scientists, Geologists ect.ect. have all concluded from their research that when compared to the Last 400 years of data, Southern California is actually experiencing a bizarre quiet period of natural disasters....adding legitimacy and deceiving Los Angelinos into believing they are safe from the 4 seasons......yet L.A. is as "An Amusement Park for Catastrophe". And although I Love Weather and Science. The Proof clearly indicates that the next Earthquake, El Nino Flood, Massive Brush Fire or social Rebellion is totally normal and part of the illusion we have all bought into in regards to "Sunny Southern Cal.WILL L.A. BURN? ? ? ? ? ?Well...It almost did ! ! ! !For hundreds of Years, long before Southern California became inhabited by white men or dreamers hoping to make it in the entertainment industry, Fire in the mountains around L.A. was a normal process of nature. In fact, most plants in the Santa Monica Mountains cannot even reproduce and release seeds unless exposed to thousand degree temperatures created by fire. As Los Angeles and surrounding areas became more heavily populated, we slowly stopped this natural process. Essentially if you owned a million dollar mansion in the local hills, you became entitled to a defense from such "Wild" natural phenomenon. This has created a very dangerous situation that even militant environmentalists agree on. By stopping the normal process of Fires and utilizing modern firefighting methods we have created an abundance of "Fuel" and disrupted the natural cycle of Fire in our hills and mountains. For Example, an area of mountains that has not had fire reshape its landscape reaches a pinnacle climax. That same area untouched by fire in 15 years multiplies the fuel content and risk for "catastrophic fire X 10...( not merely double or triple the threat). In other words, the longer we deny fire to burn and cleanse our hillsides; we only cause those hillsides to become incredibly combustible. Sadly & Ironically, The fact that we extinguish fires and protect new homes in recently developed hillside areas has inadvertently created an even greater risk for fires that reach levels that did not exist before we inhabited these areas.L.A. may have no "Real" weather? But one thing we do have is one of the most underestimated powers of nature...The Santa Ana Winds. In a typical year, L.A. will experience approximately 5 to 10 Santa Ana events, almost always between the months of October and January ( December receives the most events on average) these events last for about 2-3 days...yet sometimes can last weeks and/or occur back to back with only a few days respite in between events. The Santa Ana Winds are filled with historical folklore and urban legend stories. They are considered an iconic symbol of living in L.A.. Mentioned in movies, books and songs, including Gary Newman's classic anthem "I Love L.A". The Santa Ana Winds are an integral part of L.A. Culture. Myths about a Full moon making people go mad and crime rates going up have been deeply studied and dismissed as silly urban legends. HOWEVER! The Santa Ana winds have been proven to dramatically effect human behavior. Emergency rooms become filled, Suicide rates triple during Santa Ana events, Car accidents double.. Scientific studies show this probably occurs due to drastic changes in the ratio of positive to negative Ions in the air which are proven to effect behavior. Santa Ana's reverse the normal flow of ocean sea breezes, creating what is called an "Offshore flow". This literally sucks moisture out of the air and anything in its path. In meteorology the level of moisture in the air is measured through "Humidity". 95% of the year L.A. has Humidity levels ranging from 40% to 80 %, but during a Santa Ana those levels drop tremendously affecting the risk for fires since "All Vegetation is "Sucked" of its moisture content. If Humidity levels drop as low as 10%, the L.A. Fire Dept. declares a "Red Flag Alert". Meaning the risk of fire is not only high but considered "Imminent"."SANTA ANA WIND?" The term "Santa Ana winds" seems to be a mid-20th-century bastardization of the original term, "Santana winds," or "devil winds" â "Santana" being a Spanish variant of "Satan." Most sources attribute its folk etymology (the alteration of an unfamiliar word over time to resemble a more familiar word) to early television news commentators. These hot, drying winds don't originate in the city of Santa Ana; rather, they occur when the air coming off the desert is squeezed through the mountain passes and is forced in a southeasterly direction toward the ocean. (Their opposite, the colder onshore flow, travels northwesterly from the ocean toward the desert.) The following explanation is excerpted from the city of Los Angeles Fire Department's official report on the Bel Air Brush Fire of Nov. 6, 1961 (at lafire.com) * On a Monday morning, November 6th, 1961..A Santa Ana wind had been blowing for an amazing 5 days straight. At Van Nuys Airport. The Humidity level registered at an astounding 1% (a Record). Although Serious Brush fires had become the norm in L.A. by 1961 with numerous major brushfires in the 1950's claiming firefighters lives and awakening new residents to the concept of the "Devil Winds". Yet, this day would be the most historic days ever in the history of the Santa Ana Winds & Brush fires, It altered all views of such events and changed the perception of Santa Ana wind driven Fires Forever. This was the day of the Bel Air/Brentwood "Conflagration". To this day, The Bel Air Fire is a mystery in many ways, how did it exactly start?...but more importantly in how it literally took over the environment and created the realization that "Man" is incapable of doing anything to fight such fires. The Bel air/Brentwood Fire created "super-natural phenomenon" that to this day Los Angeles Fire Dept personnel with over 50 years experience can neither explain or have ever witnessed in their entire careers. At the time it was the costliest disaster in American History and injured over 129 Firefighters and incinerated over 500 homes "Simultaneously"The Fire Started around 8:15 a.m. near the bottom of Stone Canyon Road, just south of Van Nuys blvd and Ventura blvd. Firefighters had expected a potential fire so numerous fire stations responded in full force arriving within 3 minutes of the first call. The monster blaze was clearly out of control Immediately and had reached and hopped Mulholland 25 minutes after the first call ( Think about that for a second). Amazingly, by 8:26a.m., a L.A.F.D. fire captain had declared a State of Emergency and city wide tactical alert calling "ALL" fire Engines to the scene. At the fires pinnacle (about 11:00a.m.), 85% of all Fire fighting apparatus in the entire L.A. area were on the scene. Remember....In 1961 this would be an unprecedented action considering the lack of communications and how a typical brush fire would prompt such a drastic reaction. This shows what those first responding firefighters must have been witnessing. Stories of Homes literally exploding and 100 M.P.H. Winds blowing 20 pound pieces of Flaming wood like dead leaves seem too odd to mention. In my Research, I have uncovered footage of this event (very little exists) it is in Black and White and Grainy, but still has the ability to amaze me as much as special effects in a modern Sci-Fi movie. I read testimony from veteran firefighters with over 50 years experience fighting brush fires and dismissed their claims of homes not simply catching fire...but Exploding as exaggeration, until I saw this footage.. Fire Engines far removed from the blaze had their equipment melted, there was no line of defense whatsoever, rather an intense panic at the ferocity of the fire. An audio record of Fire Department radio transmissions reflects the frustration, anger and awe of seeing a "Hurricane of Fire" consume everything in front of them and behind them. In 1961 Media Coverage was not nearly as prepared for immediate coverage of such Breaking news events. In fact, The Bel Air fire marked the first time "Ever" a helicopter was used to cover a breaking news event and KTLA broke into regular programming to show the city what was occurring. Homeowners far removed from the fire were so panicked by what they saw, that they turned on all their Sprinklers, Showers, ect believing the city of L.A. was going to be consumed. So many people turned on their hoses, Bathtubs etc, that it literally stopped Water pressure from reaching Bel Air firefighters, at this point, Nothing could be done but RUN!...Then. The ultimate fear,,,,, only 5 miles northwest, an arsonist ignited a fire in Topanga Canyon. Although this Fire was actually more ferocious and burned 3 times the area of the Bel Air/Brentwood Fire, it did not pose as severe of a risk to homes or lives at the time. Had these Fires eventually met, which almost occurred, and I quote "All the Firefighting equipment on the West coast could not stop this Monster Holocaust". As is the case with every such fire...Monday afternoon saw the Santa Ana winds diminish, only this factor saved L.A. from burning! The National Weather Service Ranks the Bel air/Brentwood Fire among one of the top 5 most important "Weather" events to have ever occurred. It is not only the benchmark for which "ALL" So. Cal. Brush fires are measured against but an example of what can occur when all the perfect conditions occur during a Santa Ana Fire. Almost all of those who witnessed the Bel Air Fire and numerous other Santa Ana Brush fires feel that a similar scenario would be impossible to replicate, it was a freak of nature. Although the Oakland/Berkeley Fires of 1991 are considered to be nearly identical. They displayed the same "Uncontrollable characterists" seen in the Bel air incident, moving very quickly and thwarting firefighting attempts. 29 people died in the Oakland Firestorms. Once again...Many people legitimately believed the fire would burn out of the hills all the way to S.F. Bay...but the Wind Stopped! Ironically the Bay Area has a similar wind as the Santa Ana called the DIABLO WINDS; they are responsible for most of these disasters. An Interesting point is that the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 is not infamous for the actual quake..but the fire. Broken Gas lines ect created Fires that burned 2600 structures over a 3 day period. Most believed all of San Fran would be destroyed, on the 3rd day of the fire something happened. The Wind Stopped! & the fire burned itself out; otherwise all of San Fran would have burned without a doubt. It still remains the single worst urban fire Ever in American History.It may sound redundant, but it must be understood that a Santa Ana Wind Driven Brush Fire is a force of nature that only those who have seen up close such as firefighters and residents can understand, It creates it's own Weather, 500 foot high Tornadoes of Fire are common, If you are even near such a fire it will suck the air out of your lungs and make your vehicle un-drivable in a escape attempt since no oxygen can make it into the engine (the cause of many Fire Deaths). To put it bluntly yet honestly...it cannot be stopped. PERIOD. Unless one of 2 things occurs, either the winds must stop or the fire runs out of fuel. No Santa Ana Fire has ever been put out by firefighting alone, all fires in Topanga Canyon burn to the Ocean, unless extremely wide firebreaks are available the fire will spot ahead making containment impossible. They can hop over 1/4 mile wide areas of concrete to the other side of hills simply to continue their wrath. These Fires burn so quickly that even if you ran at a full sprint you would not be able to escape it. The most incredible aspect of a Santa Ana wind Fire is that the low humidity literally sucks moisture from trees and chaparral, meaning that vegetation that was lush and moist a day earlier, can be turned into ripe dry firewood within just a few hours. What this creates is fuel that not only burns...IT EXPLODES....Literally EXPLODES!...Because the oils and sap contained in the trees become mother natures Napalm. Nothing can stop it....nothing ever has.Now, the Santa Ana Season typically runs from October to January....so this summer will see Fires throughout the L.A. county region that is not even in debate. Most of these fires will be contained, due to the Fire departments readiness and hopefully "No Wind". The Main Concern the L.A.F.D and Forestry has is come October 2007 the hills surrounding Los Angeles are going to be like Gasoline, the slightest spark or cars exhaust may very well create the monster inferno some predict. The Potential for Fires on a Magnitude never seen before is not just a possibility...it is almost Guaranteed. There is nothing Firefighting personnel can do about this accept try and protect homes and inform home owners about adequate brush clearance and removing all combustible material away from their homes.I have studied the History of Southern California Brush fires dating back to the early 1900's, and so have the Fire authorities. They have computer models, Tactical alert plans and equipment standing by like a cat ready to pounce onto a bird the second a fire breaks out....I have been supplied with historical fire maps from the dept of Forestry and to me they show areas that are ripe for burning. I personally feel the risk of fires "Starting" near homes is not as important as areas that have not burned in years igniting into tidal waves of flame that will " eventually" reach homes. I have even considered models in which Terrorists could take advantage of the Santa Anas and create multiple firestorms in designated areas that would over tax firefighters and create a panic throughout L.A. under blood red smoke filled skies, My worries are very high!My Top 5 Areas of Concern 1) This area has concerned me for years......The Santa Monica Mountains between Mullholand going north towards Topanga. This area has not burned since the 1961 Bel air fire and visibly is overgrown with fuel. Although few homes lie directly in a westerly path of such a blaze, that section of mountains would eventually reach Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Malibu, having a huge unchallenged head way before reaching the western flanks.2) Although the homes are much better protected and fire prepared these days, The Bel Air area has not burned since 1961 (that is astounding)...This area and "Especially the watershed to the south (Beverly Glen, Coldwater ect) are ripe for a severe burn).3) Just recently. It has had a minor burn, but the Area around Universal Studios all the way to Dodger Stadium is highly underestimated as a threat, but its proximity to the Large Metropolis of Hollywood and L.A. makes it Dangerous in the right wind conditions.4) The hills around the Newhall pass all the way to Chatsworth are ready and primed for a bad burn, very similar to the Sept 1970 fire which sent fright throughout the entire San Fernando Valley. I have seen even small isolated fires near Balboa and the 118 fwy cause severe damage and chaos. Also these areas are high wind region during Santa Ana.5) One of my main concerns that has arisen just recently are homes that sit on relatively small hills not surrounded by mountains, these types of developments are numerous and countless throughout So.Cal..From Sun Valley to San Dimas, the Inland Empire to Echo Park. I draw this conclusion on the Baldwin Hills Fire in the 1980's. In that Fire only a small amount of Brush burned about 100 yards yet killed one person and scorched numerous homes. It does not even take much wind or Fuel to create enough fire energy to set off a domino effect of burning homes. Considering the Dry winter L.A. has experienced I fear we have ignored the smaller areas of Brush and residents and only focused on the "Classic" areas such as Malibu and Santa Ana as serious threats. Beware; we may see a summer filled with countless "Small Fires" that by 2008 may have superseded any major conflagration that occurs in areas far better prepared for fire.Anyways, we will see what happens. I feel that next winter will bring much more rain to So. Cal and lesses the fire threat that we currently find ourselves in. As of now. Be careful, be aware and do not panic if this coming summer and fall turn into Firestorms. It is part of the natural ecology, yet this dry winter complicates things greatly...Don Michael LinsLAC/NWS Spotter Lic. 480Member of NASCAS (national assoc of storm Chasers & spotters)5) One of my main concerns that has arisen just recently are homes that sit on relatively small hills not surrounded by mountains, these types of developments are numerous and countless throughout So.Cal..From Sun Valley to San Dimas, the Inland Empire to Echo Park. I draw this conclusion on the Baldwin Hills Fire in the 1980's. In that Fire only a small amount of Brush burned about 100 yards yet killed one person and scorched numerous homes. It does not even take much wind or Fuel to create enough fire energy to set off a domino effect of burning homes. Considering the Dry winter L.A. has experienced I fear we have ignored the smaller areas of Brush and residents and only focused on the "Classic" areas such as Malibu and Santa Ana as serious threats. Beware; we may see a summer filled with countless "Small Fires" that by 2008 may have superseded any major conflagration that occurs in areas far better prepared for fire.Anyways, we will see what happens. I feel that next winter will bring much more rain to So. Cal and lesses the fire threat that we currently find ourselves in. As of now. Be careful, be aware and do not panic if this coming summer and fall turn into Firestorms. It is part of the natural ecology, yet this dry winter complicates things greatly...Don Michael LinsLAC/NWS Spotter Lic. 480Member of NASCAS (national assoc of storm Chasers & spotters) read less
Fri August 10 2007
L.A. WILL BURN IN FALL 2007 Originally Posted March,2007 Special Thanks to Mike Davis,Dept. of Forestry and U.C.L.A. Library Archives First of all, don't be scared off or bored by my prologue, the following statements are "FACTS" and they are some very important "Facts" that L.A. Residents should be aware of to understand the dynamics of So. Cal. Climatology. Los Angeles is not the utopian paradise of Serenity and annual days at the beach that has been advertised for almost a century. Southern California is nicknamed by many Scientists and Climatologists as "An Amusement park for Disasters". L.A. has 4 seasons that are very unique compared to the rest of the Country, those 4 seasons are not Fall, Winter, Spring & Summer. The 4 L.A. Seasons consist of Riot, Fire, Flood & Earthquake (sounds funny, but it's true). The amount of misconceptions that exist regarding L.A. Climate and its environment are amazingly deceiving and dangerous, so vastly different and Complicated, I could never explain them in a simple Blog. Yet I assure you they exist, they amazed me once I discovered the deeper issues surrounding L.A. & would truly frighten you if you understood how realistic they are. Los Angeles has some VERY unique characteristics that sociologists and Scientists have studied and recognized as disturbing truths. These realities are ignored by many, from The Weather Channel, Local Media but more importantly. The Population of So. Cal. . Los Angeles is the ONLY city in the United States that contains an Extremely Dangerous yet unique trait. No other City in the country is so populated and blends such an eclectic group of Economic classes, Cultural differences and confinement in an area simultaneously prone to Major catastrophe & natural disasters. There have been studies on this subject and only Miami, Florida comes second in the risk of natural disasters combining with issues such as class warfare, urban diversity & lack of preparedness to create a dangerous mix that will someday climax into total chaos and mayhem. Los Angeles ranks first in a category that has just recently been judged as so highly dangerous and "Volatile". This new discovery has been referred to as "Urban/Wildlife interface". Essentially Los Angeles residents sit right next to and often "Into" the Mountains...Ocean shores...Earthquake faults ECT. That geologically makes L.A such a visually beautiful landscape that draws people from around the Country & world. Los Angeles, Much like New York City has an eclectic array of Culture, living standards and diversity that make it a great city. These very qualities are also the ingredients for disaster. L.A. at some point will go through a massive transformation that involves natural events combined with social and political factors that ironically join together in the supposed tranquility yet quiet instability of Los Angeles, California, U.S.A. Without straying too far from the main topic and losing your interest, let me give you some facts that might shed light into why L.A. is a silent Bomb, and how this factors into my opinions on L.A. being misinterpreted as "Paradise". 2007 has so far has recorded the lowest amount of rainfall ever recorded in L.A. (2.47"). This is an extremely misleading statement. The Word "Average" does not exist when speaking of L.A. Climate. According to the National Weather Service, the Average amount of Rainfall for Los Angeles is around 14.00" in a year... few realize that this average is based on an Extreme and radical cycle of Weather ...you see...In the Weather world, yearly rain averages are mathematically figured. Meaning for example that one year L.A. may receive No rain at all, not a drop, causing fears of drought and fire. But! If the next year we are deluged with 30" of Rain causing flooded streets, and homes sliding down hillsides, The Weather service concludes that our yearly Average rainfall is 15". This is "Exactly" how L.A. County creates an "Average" annual rainfall amount. Extreme fluctuations in Rainfall, Temperture, are what create our Average. "No" other state experiences such inconsistent Weather events yet uses this method to create what we are told is average a.k.a Normal? In other words "Our Normal Weather is to never have Normal Weather. Imagine Driving at a speed of 100 M.P.H. on the freeway for 30 minutes and then stopping completely, it would make little sense to claim your "Normal" driving speed is 50 miles per hour wouldn't it. Yet in almost every Weather category, that is how L.A.'s "Averages are obtained. Did you know, that In 1939 A Hurricane made Landfall near San Pedro, killing numerous people and creating severe flood conditions throughout L.A. but you have been told that Hurricanes cannot hit California?.....Even the Santa Ana winds reach 100+ m.p.h regularly...much Stronger than a Hurricane? Yet.... If you watch the Weather channel or read outside papers after serious weather events like that. You will see how they are downplayed, this is no accident. Every time L.A. experiences unusual Weather the media will "always" play a video of someone from out of town who claims "This is nothing compared to home". They may be right! but what is important is that these events resemble nothing that we are told is normal L.A. weather. This is referred to as the "East Coast Bias". East Coast Bias is the perpetuation that Severe and catastrophic Weather only occurs in the mid-west, Southeast and upper east coast. Even Snow (although Rare) used to fall in Los Angeles at least every ten years, and I don't mean 1 inch of sleet or ice. I have seen Pictures from the late 1940's showing Topanga Canyon Blvd and Sherman Way under a foot of snow, although "Unusual" the last snow event occurred in February 1989 and only dropped about an inch in suburbia, but it is not as uncommon as most Los Angelinos think. So Next time it Snows in Sunny Cal they will tell you it is a "Freak" occurrence, although it has happened numerous times before and will again.. Tornadoes are very common for us in Los Angeles, although this statement draws "Much" critiscism...Los Angeles actually experiences more "Tornadic Events" per mile than Okalahoma city (the center of infamous "Tornado alley") The Criticism is that we only get weak F1 or F2 tornadoes and Oklahoma gets major F4's tornadoes. True, but irrelevant to my point. Most astounding yet filled with explanation is that it has been clearly proven through city documents and testimony that back in the Early to mid 1900's, L.A. politicians and land owners wanted Easterners to farm out in L.A. .To escape snow and tornadoes, thus it demanded that local papers and meteorologist reports classify L.A. tornadoes as"Freak Winds" or "Downbursts" as to not scare away potential new residents. Pictures and recorded proof show that L.A. experiences mild tornadoes on a regular basis. The Claim that L.A. has no such events or that they are even rare is a Lie that still exists today, In November 1982 Tornadoes Ravaged areas of Van Nuys, Vernon etc.Tornaedoes actually have caused great damage to the L.A. infrastructure in the past 100 years. One of the most dramatic storms in L.A. history hit on March 1, 1983 when a powerful F2 Tornado nearly flattened sections of downtown L.A. just west of the Staples Center, killing 1 person, Causing severe damage to homes ect. And even ripping the roof of the Convention Center. But you don't hear about that do you.I feel the need to mention these historical facts and educate you on these events (and there are many more I assure you) simply to point out that the statement"L.A. has no Weather" is one of the greatest myths that exists in the weather community and yet is still perpetuated to this day. Southern California climate is "The Weather of Extremes". From Earthquake Faults that we never knew existed (Northridge) or Brush Fires that we always knew would occur (Firestorms of 2002) yet could not be controlled. L.A. is in the Sniper sights of Mother Nature and Archeologists, Scientists, Geologists ect.ect. have all concluded from their research that when compared to the Last 400 years of data, Southern California is actually experiencing a bizarre quiet period of natural disasters....adding legitimacy and deceiving Los Angelinos into believing they are safe from the 4 seasons......yet L.A. is as "An Amusement Park for Catastrophe". And although I Love Weather and Science. The Proof clearly indicates that the next Earthquake, El Nino Flood, Massive Brush Fire or social Rebellion is totally normal and part of the illusion we have all bought into in regards to "Sunny Southern Cal.WILL L.A. BURN? ? ? ? ? ?Well...It almost did ! ! ! !For hundreds of Years, long before Southern California became inhabited by white men or dreamers hoping to make it in the entertainment industry, Fire in the mountains around L.A. was a normal process of nature. In fact, most plants in the Santa Monica Mountains cannot even reproduce and release seeds unless exposed to thousand degree temperatures created by fire. As Los Angeles and surrounding areas became more heavily populated, we slowly stopped this natural process. Essentially if you owned a million dollar mansion in the local hills, you became entitled to a defense from such "Wild" natural phenomenon. This has created a very dangerous situation that even militant environmentalists agree on. By stopping the normal process of Fires and utilizing modern firefighting methods we have created an abundance of "Fuel" and disrupted the natural cycle of Fire in our hills and mountains. For Example, an area of mountains that has not had fire reshape its landscape reaches a pinnacle climax. That same area untouched by fire in 15 years multiplies the fuel content and risk for "catastrophic fire X 10...( not merely double or triple the threat). In other words, the longer we deny fire to burn and cleanse our hillsides; we only cause those hillsides to become incredibly combustible. Sadly & Ironically, The fact that we extinguish fires and protect new homes in recently developed hillside areas has inadvertently created an even greater risk for fires that reach levels that did not exist before we inhabited these areas.L.A. may have no "Real" weather? But one thing we do have is one of the most underestimated powers of nature...The Santa Ana Winds. In a typical year, L.A. will experience approximately 5 to 10 Santa Ana events, almost always between the months of October and January ( December receives the most events on average) these events last for about 2-3 days...yet sometimes can last weeks and/or occur back to back with only a few days respite in between events. The Santa Ana Winds are filled with historical folklore and urban legend stories. They are considered an iconic symbol of living in L.A.. Mentioned in movies, books and songs, including Gary Newman's classic anthem "I Love L.A". The Santa Ana Winds are an integral part of L.A. Culture. Myths about a Full moon making people go mad and crime rates going up have been deeply studied and dismissed as silly urban legends. HOWEVER! The Santa Ana winds have been proven to dramatically effect human behavior. Emergency rooms become filled, Suicide rates triple during Santa Ana events, Car accidents double.. Scientific studies show this probably occurs due to drastic changes in the ratio of positive to negative Ions in the air which are proven to effect behavior. Santa Ana's reverse the normal flow of ocean sea breezes, creating what is called an "Offshore flow". This literally sucks moisture out of the air and anything in its path. In meteorology the level of moisture in the air is measured through "Humidity". 95% of the year L.A. has Humidity levels ranging from 40% to 80 %, but during a Santa Ana those levels drop tremendously affecting the risk for fires since "All Vegetation is "Sucked" of its moisture content. If Humidity levels drop as low as 10%, the L.A. Fire Dept. declares a "Red Flag Alert". Meaning the risk of fire is not only high but considered "Imminent"."SANTA ANA WIND?" The term "Santa Ana winds" seems to be a mid-20th-century bastardization of the original term, "Santana winds," or "devil winds" â "Santana" being a Spanish variant of "Satan." Most sources attribute its folk etymology (the alteration of an unfamiliar word over time to resemble a more familiar word) to early television news commentators. These hot, drying winds don't originate in the city of Santa Ana; rather, they occur when the air coming off the desert is squeezed through the mountain passes and is forced in a southeasterly direction toward the ocean. (Their opposite, the colder onshore flow, travels northwesterly from the ocean toward the desert.) The following explanation is excerpted from the city of Los Angeles Fire Department's official report on the Bel Air Brush Fire of Nov. 6, 1961 (at lafire.com) * On a Monday morning, November 6th, 1961..A Santa Ana wind had been blowing for an amazing 5 days straight. At Van Nuys Airport. The Humidity level registered at an astounding 1% (a Record). Although Serious Brush fires had become the norm in L.A. by 1961 with numerous major brushfires in the 1950's claiming firefighters lives and awakening new residents to the concept of the "Devil Winds". Yet, this day would be the most historic days ever in the history of the Santa Ana Winds & Brush fires, It altered all views of such events and changed the perception of Santa Ana wind driven Fires Forever. This was the day of the Bel Air/Brentwood "Conflagration". To this day, The Bel Air Fire is a mystery in many ways, how did it exactly start?...but more importantly in how it literally took over the environment and created the realization that "Man" is incapable of doing anything to fight such fires. The Bel air/Brentwood Fire created "super-natural phenomenon" that to this day Los Angeles Fire Dept personnel with over 50 years experience can neither explain or have ever witnessed in their entire careers. At the time it was the costliest disaster in American History and injured over 129 Firefighters and incinerated over 500 homes "Simultaneously"The Fire Started around 8:15 a.m. near the bottom of Stone Canyon Road, just south of Van Nuys blvd and Ventura blvd. Firefighters had expected a potential fire so numerous fire stations responded in full force arriving within 3 minutes of the first call. The monster blaze was clearly out of control Immediately and had reached and hopped Mulholland 25 minutes after the first call ( Think about that for a second). Amazingly, by 8:26a.m., a L.A.F.D. fire captain had declared a State of Emergency and city wide tactical alert calling "ALL" fire Engines to the scene. At the fires pinnacle (about 11:00a.m.), 85% of all Fire fighting apparatus in the entire L.A. area were on the scene. Remember....In 1961 this would be an unprecedented action considering the lack of communications and how a typical brush fire would prompt such a drastic reaction. This shows what those first responding firefighters must have been witnessing. Stories of Homes literally exploding and 100 M.P.H. Winds blowing 20 pound pieces of Flaming wood like dead leaves seem too odd to mention. In my Research, I have uncovered footage of this event (very little exists) it is in Black and White and Grainy, but still has the ability to amaze me as much as special effects in a modern Sci-Fi movie. I read testimony from veteran firefighters with over 50 years experience fighting brush fires and dismissed their claims of homes not simply catching fire...but Exploding as exaggeration, until I saw this footage.. Fire Engines far removed from the blaze had their equipment melted, there was no line of defense whatsoever, rather an intense panic at the ferocity of the fire. An audio record of Fire Department radio transmissions reflects the frustration, anger and awe of seeing a "Hurricane of Fire" consume everything in front of them and behind them. In 1961 Media Coverage was not nearly as prepared for immediate coverage of such Breaking news events. In fact, The Bel Air fire marked the first time "Ever" a helicopter was used to cover a breaking news event and KTLA broke into regular programming to show the city what was occurring. Homeowners far removed from the fire were so panicked by what they saw, that they turned on all their Sprinklers, Showers, ect believing the city of L.A. was going to be consumed. So many people turned on their hoses, Bathtubs etc, that it literally stopped Water pressure from reaching Bel Air firefighters, at this point, Nothing could be done but RUN!...Then. The ultimate fear,,,,, only 5 miles northwest, an arsonist ignited a fire in Topanga Canyon. Although this Fire was actually more ferocious and burned 3 times the area of the Bel Air/Brentwood Fire, it did not pose as severe of a risk to homes or lives at the time. Had these Fires eventually met, which almost occurred, and I quote "All the Firefighting equipment on the West coast could not stop this Monster Holocaust". As is the case with every such fire...Monday afternoon saw the Santa Ana winds diminish, only this factor saved L.A. from burning! The National Weather Service Ranks the Bel air/Brentwood Fire among one of the top 5 most important "Weather" events to have ever occurred. It is not only the benchmark for which "ALL" So. Cal. Brush fires are measured against but an example of what can occur when all the perfect conditions occur during a Santa Ana Fire. Almost all of those who witnessed the Bel Air Fire and numerous other Santa Ana Brush fires feel that a similar scenario would be impossible to replicate, it was a freak of nature. Although the Oakland/Berkeley Fires of 1991 are considered to be nearly identical. They displayed the same "Uncontrollable characterists" seen in the Bel air incident, moving very quickly and thwarting firefighting attempts. 29 people died in the Oakland Firestorms. Once again...Many people legitimately believed the fire would burn out of the hills all the way to S.F. Bay...but the Wind Stopped! Ironically the Bay Area has a similar wind as the Santa Ana called the DIABLO WINDS; they are responsible for most of these disasters. An Interesting point is that the Great San Francisco Earthquake of 1906 is not infamous for the actual quake..but the fire. Broken Gas lines ect created Fires that burned 2600 structures over a 3 day period. Most believed all of San Fran would be destroyed, on the 3rd day of the fire something happened. The Wind Stopped! & the fire burned itself out; otherwise all of San Fran would have burned without a doubt. It still remains the single worst urban fire Ever in American History.It may sound redundant, but it must be understood that a Santa Ana Wind Driven Brush Fire is a force of nature that only those who have seen up close such as firefighters and residents can understand, It creates it's own Weather, 500 foot high Tornadoes of Fire are common, If you are even near such a fire it will suck the air out of your lungs and make your vehicle un-drivable in a escape attempt since no oxygen can make it into the engine (the cause of many Fire Deaths). To put it bluntly yet honestly...it cannot be stopped. PERIOD. Unless one of 2 things occurs, either the winds must stop or the fire runs out of fuel. No Santa Ana Fire has ever been put out by firefighting alone, all fires in Topanga Canyon burn to the Ocean, unless extremely wide firebreaks are available the fire will spot ahead making containment impossible. They can hop over 1/4 mile wide areas of concrete to the other side of hills simply to continue their wrath. These Fires burn so quickly that even if you ran at a full sprint you would not be able to escape it. The most incredible aspect of a Santa Ana wind Fire is that the low humidity literally sucks moisture from trees and chaparral, meaning that vegetation that was lush and moist a day earlier, can be turned into ripe dry firewood within just a few hours. What this creates is fuel that not only burns...IT EXPLODES....Literally EXPLODES!...Because the oils and sap contained in the trees become mother natures Napalm. Nothing can stop it....nothing ever has.Now, the Santa Ana Season typically runs from October to January....so this summer will see Fires throughout the L.A. county region that is not even in debate. Most of these fires will be contained, due to the Fire departments readiness and hopefully "No Wind". The Main Concern the L.A.F.D and Forestry has is come October 2007 the hills surrounding Los Angeles are going to be like Gasoline, the slightest spark or cars exhaust may very well create the monster inferno some predict. The Potential for Fires on a Magnitude never seen before is not just a possibility...it is almost Guaranteed. There is nothing Firefighting personnel can do about this accept try and protect homes and inform home owners about adequate brush clearance and removing all combustible material away from their homes.I have studied the History of Southern California Brush fires dating back to the early 1900's, and so have the Fire authorities. They have computer models, Tactical alert plans and equipment standing by like a cat ready to pounce onto a bird the second a fire breaks out....I have been supplied with historical fire maps from the dept of Forestry and to me they show areas that are ripe for burning. I personally feel the risk of fires "Starting" near homes is not as important as areas that have not burned in years igniting into tidal waves of flame that will " eventually" reach homes. I have even considered models in which Terrorists could take advantage of the Santa Anas and create multiple firestorms in designated areas that would over tax firefighters and create a panic throughout L.A. under blood red smoke filled skies, My worries are very high!My Top 5 Areas of Concern 1) This area has concerned me for years......The Santa Monica Mountains between Mullholand going north towards Topanga. This area has not burned since the 1961 Bel air fire and visibly is overgrown with fuel. Although few homes lie directly in a westerly path of such a blaze, that section of mountains would eventually reach Pacific Palisades, Brentwood, Malibu, having a huge unchallenged head way before reaching the western flanks.2) Although the homes are much better protected and fire prepared these days, The Bel Air area has not burned since 1961 (that is astounding)...This area and "Especially the watershed to the south (Beverly Glen, Coldwater ect) are ripe for a severe burn).3) Just recently. It has had a minor burn, but the Area around Universal Studios all the way to Dodger Stadium is highly underestimated as a threat, but its proximity to the Large Metropolis of Hollywood and L.A. makes it Dangerous in the right wind conditions.4) The hills around the Newhall pass all the way to Chatsworth are ready and primed for a bad burn, very similar to the Sept 1970 fire which sent fright throughout the entire San Fernando Valley. I have seen even small isolated fires near Balboa and the 118 fwy cause severe damage and chaos. Also these areas are high wind region during Santa Ana.5) One of my main concerns that has arisen just recently are homes that sit on relatively small hills not surrounded by mountains, these types of developments are numerous and countless throughout So.Cal..From Sun Valley to San Dimas, the Inland Empire to Echo Park. I draw this conclusion on the Baldwin Hills Fire in the 1980's. In that Fire only a small amount of Brush burned about 100 yards yet killed one person and scorched numerous homes. It does not even take much wind or Fuel to create enough fire energy to set off a domino effect of burning homes. Considering the Dry winter L.A. has experienced I fear we have ignored the smaller areas of Brush and residents and only focused on the "Classic" areas such as Malibu and Santa Ana as serious threats. Beware; we may see a summer filled with countless "Small Fires" that by 2008 may have superseded any major conflagration that occurs in areas far better prepared for fire.Anyways, we will see what happens. I feel that next winter will bring much more rain to So. Cal and lesses the fire threat that we currently find ourselves in. As of now. Be careful, be aware and do not panic if this coming summer and fall turn into Firestorms. It is part of the natural ecology, yet this dry winter complicates things greatly...Don Michael LinsLAC/NWS Spotter Lic. 480Member of NASCAS (national assoc of storm Chasers & spotters)5) One of my main concerns that has arisen just recently are homes that sit on relatively small hills not surrounded by mountains, these types of developments are numerous and countless throughout So.Cal..From Sun Valley to San Dimas, the Inland Empire to Echo Park. I draw this conclusion on the Baldwin Hills Fire in the 1980's. In that Fire only a small amount of Brush burned about 100 yards yet killed one person and scorched numerous homes. It does not even take much wind or Fuel to create enough fire energy to set off a domino effect of burning homes. Considering the Dry winter L.A. has experienced I fear we have ignored the smaller areas of Brush and residents and only focused on the "Classic" areas such as Malibu and Santa Ana as serious threats. Beware; we may see a summer filled with countless "Small Fires" that by 2008 may have superseded any major conflagration that occurs in areas far better prepared for fire.Anyways, we will see what happens. I feel that next winter will bring much more rain to So. Cal and lesses the fire threat that we currently find ourselves in. As of now. Be careful, be aware and do not panic if this coming summer and fall turn into Firestorms. It is part of the natural ecology, yet this dry winter complicates things greatly...Don Michael LinsLAC/NWS Spotter Lic. 480Member of NASCAS (national assoc of storm Chasers & spotters) read less
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